IceStorm 98 Study

Issue #7 - What Ifs

Given the scale of the ice storm emergency, the response was extraordinarily effective. Demands on resources exceeded any foreseeable expectations and somehow answers were found.

However, one should also look beyond this particular event and speculate as to what might have happened if events had evolved differently in order to plan for circumstances more dire than those that occurred during the 1998 Ice Storm. If the situation had been just a little bit different, what was a major inconvenience could have turned into a full-scale catastrophe with large increases in the number of deaths.

1. What if the temperature had been slightly different and glare ice on the ground had been widespread (as commonly happens in ice storms)? Vehicle movement would have been slower, accident emergencies more numerous, and the process of identifying the emergency and responding to it slowed. Being able to transport people and goods proved to be absolutely critical to the ice storm emergency response. What if helicopters and planes had to be relied upon for transportation?
2. What if there had been more ice, or more severe ice extended over a larger area? What if it had not warmed up on Saturday, January the 10th, melting ice and reducing the stress on utility lines and trees?
3. What if temperatures had not remained above normal for several days? Heat loss in homes would have been higher, and more people would have had to find alternate accommodations, increasing the demands on shelters. Hypothermia would have been a particular concern, especially for the elderly. Ben TeKamp, Mayor of the City of Brockville expressed his concerns this way:

   “The overlying concern I had through the entire ice storm was fatality... you feel so helpless in terms of what conditions could provoke a massive disaster, and that being to my mind was the elderly … who would succumb to the cold temperatures...”.

4. What if Kingston had had a total loss of power similar to Brockville and Cornwall? How would the city have coped and how would the regional role that Kingston played during the ice storm emergency have suffered?
5. What if there had not been a Kingston amalgamation on January 1st, 1998? How would the response have been co-ordinated including such aspects as the organization and deployment of outside resources?
6. What if there had been fewer hospital beds and what if psychiatric hospitals had been closed, as is currently being proposed? That there was excess space in the Hotel Dieu Hospital in Kingston and at the Brockville and Kingston Psychiatric Hospitals made the shelter problem for specialized needs much more manageable. According to the plans for both health care and social services, this capacity will be gone in less than five years. Provisions for emergencies are not included in the planning of these services. Relying on facilities outside the affected area is a very limited alternative as there is no centre large enough to meet potential needs within a reasonable distance, nor are there resources for an evacuation on any scale.
7. What if a large city such as Toronto were hit with a total power outage in the middle of winter, as experienced during the 1998 Ice Storm?
8. What if large-scale evacuations of homes, hospitals, jails, and special care facilities had been required? Where would the resources have been found to transport people? What would have been the effects on people who were already in a poor state of health? Would there have been the resources to accommodate people in other hospitals or jails. How would responders have coped if faced with setting up shelters for many more thousands of people?
9. What if power had not been restored to the water treatment plants? The emergency generator at the water treatment plant in the old City of Kingston had enough power to pump water but not enough to backwash the filters that render the water, which comes from Lake Ontario, potable.
10. What if power had not been restored to sewage pumping stations?
11. What if municipalities had done less emergency planning, training and exercising? What if they had done more?
12. What if the military had not been available, or available in fewer numbers?
13. What if the staff and resources of the federal (EPC) and provincial (EMO) emergency organizations continue to be reduced? How will the capacity of these governments to respond to future emergencies be affected? How will training and planning at the municipal level be affected? There is growing evidence that more frequent and more severe weather events are a consequence of global warming. This would suggest that more, rather than less, priority should be given to emergency mitigation, preparedness and response.
14. What if the entire Ottawa area, eastern Ontario’s largest urban center, had been without power for several days, as were many other areas in eastern Ontario?
15. What if large-scale evacuations had been necessary due to flooding?
16. What if the computer microchip problem known as the Year 2000 or Y2K problem creates massive power outages January 1, 2000? Are you and your organization prepared?